Venezuela: An Anatomy of Regime Change

On the first sleepy Saturday of 2026, the world woke up to news that was surprising if not totally unexpected. Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a daring overnight raid into that nation’s capital, executed by US military and law enforcement personnel following a weeks-long buildup of American power in the region.

As we write this, the Maduros are being escorted to New York per a recently unsealed indictment filed with the US Justice Department.

While the ripple effects of this maneuver are bound to be complex and polarizing, it is—from a technical and tactical standpoint—worth taking some time to examine what goes into planning and executing an operation like this, the equivalent of geopolitical open-heart surgery. 

The decision to simply “cut the head off the snake” offers some advantages over a large-scale invasion but requires precise planning and bold execution. Tying this to a criminal charge meant integrating elements of the Justice Department, in this case the DEA, with the military elements in charge of conducting the raid.

It also required a premium on bringing the Maduros out alive to face their charges, as opposed to a counterterrorism operation under traditional military rules of engagement which may not require capture. Having said that, there is some preliminary information circulating that indicates Trump left open the option of killing Maduro, if the situation required. 

Bringing in a fugitive, regardless of where they are, mandates that you know a few key pieces of information. Foremost among them is where your target will be when you intend to pick them up. In the case of a criminal here in the US, law enforcement establishes known associates and familiar hangouts, often utilizing a combination of surveillance techniques from tracking cell phones to old-school stakeouts to identify routines and patterns-of-life. This allows officers and agents to determine the best place to make an arrest.

But, when targeting foreign heads of state, the process is exponentially more complicated. There are well-documented cases in recent history of world leaders using body doubles, secret bunkers, and large contingents of armed guards to protect themselves. This requires an intensive intelligence effort leaning heavily on a combination of strategic intelligence assets.

Examples of this include satellite imagery, electronic surveillance of cellular and digital activity, drone flyovers for real-time photo and video collection, and we suspect heavy use of human informants from within Maduro’s inner circle.   

But mission success requires more than getting your target. It requires protecting your own forces in the process. An airborne incursion is usually the fastest way to reach your objective. Moving overland on foot or in vehicles through hostile terrain equates to an increased risk of exposure or capture for the raid team. Again, maximum information is key. In military parlance, the process is referred to as IPB – Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace.

The IPB process is a methodical analysis of myriad planning factors. Some of these might be obvious, such as the number of enemy soldiers in an area, or what kind of weapons they have. But operational planning requires knowing far more than just the enemy. Are there high mountain peaks that helicopters will have to account for in their flight plan? How much moonlight will there be – enough to illuminate ships on the water or aircraft in the night sky?

Once a rigorous intelligence process has been completed, surgical precision is paramount during the mission itself. In this case, helicopters carrying special operators were required to approach over open water to reach a coastal city equipped with anti-aircraft weapons.

This posed a significant risk to the raid force that was mitigated by a multi-phase execution prioritizing the destruction of those anti-aircraft batteries. Electronic warfare planes flying overhead could disrupt RADAR, radios, and other electronic warning equipment, allowing a package of strike aircraft to get close enough to physically destroy anti-aircraft sites. This SEAD/DEAD mission would be tasked with destroying anything that could either shoot at or ‘see’ approaching helicopters. 

Once the AA weapons themselves are neutralized, helicopters carrying the raid team, blocking force (to secure the ground around the target building), and/or quick reaction force (backup for the raid team if they encounter heavy resistance) could reach the target location, hit the ground, and apprehend the Maduros.

It is likely that the raid team was receiving real-time intelligence updates in the helicopter while en route to the target location, with parameters established to abort the operation, or use an alternate plan, if the situation changed substantially during the approach. 

There are multiple fine details of the Venezuela plan and its execution that we may never find out. But it’s clear to see that months of planning and intelligence collection, along with the work of hundreds-if-not-thousands of highly skilled Americans in the military and intelligence community, enabled an incredibly bold, seemingly smooth operation that single-handedly changed the course of a country in several hours without any loss of American life reported at time of writing.

This operation puts a fine point on exactly what’s possible when the right people and the right technology are unified by an effective plan carried out with precision and daring.    

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